Photo And Caption By Michael Bevil

Titanic.

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:

So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data? - well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. - and your conclusion? - well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire.  - no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

On August 9, 2014, Brown, an unarmed black 18-year old, was shot and killed by Wilson, who is white. The shooting led to demonstrations, confrontations with police, and some looting and violence.

Okay! So you get these saline packets at a pharmacy and dissolve them in warm (not hot! It’s going in your nose!) water that is either distilled or that you’ve boiled beforehand. (Internet tells me you can also use table salt ¼ teaspoon to 1 cup of water). 

Then you use a clean Neti Pot, a bulb syringe, or a squeeze bottle (I use the squeeze bottle) to flush out your nostrils. (Can probably also find those at the pharmacy if you don’t already have one.) When I use the squeeze bottle, I stand over a sink, put it up against one side of my nose, and hold my mouth open a little open. Then I squeeze the bottle enough so that salt water goes up one nostril and out the other (and any excess water can come out my mouth). Then do the other side….. Here’s a little two minute video that says some of the same stuff but has visuals. --> (x) 

I know it sounds a little weird, but it really can be helpful!

My allergies have been non stop since yesterday. 😭💔 my face hurts so much like my sinuses wanna murder me and my throat is like haha you want to clear it?? Nope! Have some icky stuff in there! Like it really is taking me out this week and it's barely Tuesday.

I miss this show.... and it had such a cool and unique art style too!

drew this for my friend’s birthday! (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧

Don’t mind me! This is just a comparison between two of my princess tutu pieces cause I’ve got some reminiscing and pontificating in my system. ^.^

Keep reading

I want to eat healthy, but I also just made a batch of cookies..... I HAVE MADE A HUGE TACTICAL ERROR

A quick sketch of a lovely OC belonging to @curlycupgumweed <3

ko-fi | redbubble

These two are lovable dorks

I freaking love our Phanbase.